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Today, we’re revisiting a useful on-chain metric, Liveliness, that tracks the accumulation and distribution behavior of HODLers. As a refresher, Liveliness is calculated as a ratio: the sum of all Coin Days Destroyed and the sum of all coin days ever created.
- Liveliness increases as long-term holders distribute more coins, creating more coin days destroyed relative to coin days created.
- Liveliness decreases as long-term holders accumulate more coins, creating less coin days destroyed relative to coin days created.
Throughout bitcoin’s history, we see clear patterns of long-term holder distribution and accumulation that drive bull and bear market cycles that can be easily tracked with Liveliness.
During the last yr, we noticed a rising Liveliness metric with long-term holders distributing extra cash through the earlier all-time excessive worth rise from January by Might. After that got here a robust interval of accumulation throughout decrease costs, up till October the place some long-term holder distribution began to take form. During the last couple weeks with worth doubtlessly reaching a backside after the latest deleveraging occasion, the Liveliness development appears to have began a shift again in direction of a interval of slight accumulation.
This could be a very good signal to see long-term holders accumulate at these decrease costs earlier than one other interval of distribution. Accelerated long-term holder distribution on the present bitcoin worth would sign a insecurity from the “good cash” that bitcoin has extra upside over the following few months.
One other solution to view the Liveliness development is to take a look at Binary Liveliness. Binary Liveliness is designed to assist determine durations of accumulation and excessive distribution by older cash. The inexperienced worth on the beneath chart will produce 1 when Liveliness is larger than its 30-day shifting common. When it is beneath the common, it produces 0.
The blue line will return a 1 when Liveliness is larger right now than the day before today or else it produces 0. A 30-day shifting common is then utilized to those outcomes.
What the present knowledge exhibits, trying on the blue line, is that Binary Liveliness is beginning to development and maintain decrease values which alerts Liveliness is in a possible new downtrend, or a interval of extra long-term holder accumulation.